Iran, Israel and oil futures
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"A sustained $10 increase in oil prices is expected to increase inflation by 0.4% and lower GDP by 0.4%": Apollo Global Management 's ( APO -4.34%) chief economist Torston Slok says oil is fueling U.S. stagflation fears, adding to the effect expected from import tariffs.
A sustained surge in oil prices is likely to complicate the U.S. fight against inflation. A $10-a-barrel increase would boost year-over-year growth in the Consumer Price Index by 0.5 percentage points,
Although the U.S. is a net oil exporter, higher oil prices could increase inflation and lower economic growth.
An hour with a big fixed income manager is a discussion of the big issues. Expect volatility, he says – a bit of a tired line, although not an untrue one.
There are palpable fears that the escalating tension in the Middle East could drive up energy costs in Nigeria as crude oil prices continue to surge.
Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities risk pushing back the timeline for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts as the US central bank waits to assess any potential impact on inflation, economists said.
That sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury up to 4.43% from 4.36% late Thursday. Higher yields can tug down on prices for stocks and other investments, while making it more expensive for U.S. companies and households to borrow money.