There was widespread slander for England’s flat display against the 173rd-ranked nation in the world on Saturday, and manager Thomas Tuchel was among his side’s harshest critics. The German, overseeing his third game in charge after a pair of routine wins in March,

Bukayo Saka is set to make his first start for England under Thomas Tuchel when the Three Lions host Senegal. The Arsenal winger has missed the last two international camps through injury and was also absent for Saturday’s 1-0 win over Andorra with a muscle strain.

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a England win with a probability of 49.35%. A draw has a probability of 25.3% and a win for Senegal has a probability of 25.3%.